(cross-posted at Calitics)

Absolutely huge news from out of CA-04.  On the eve of the primary, with Tom McClintock and Doug Ose locked in a death struggle of a primary, spending over $4 million dollars because they think the nomination is a prelude to an easy walk to a victory in November and a seat in Congress, Charlie Brown's campaign has released an internal poll showing him leading both Republicans.

The survey of 400 likely General Election voters was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group on May 14th and 15th.  The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.

Despite a $4 million advertising blitz by the GOP frontrunners, the poll shows Brown leading Ose 38% to 34%, and leading McClintock 42% to 40%.

The survey also showed a generic ballot between the Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress tied at 43%, with self identification of voters moving sharply away from the often cited voter registration statistics of the district.

"The numbers confirm that district four voters want real local leadership, and they want change," Brown said.  "No matter which career politician wins the GOP Primary on Tuesday night, this race will continue to offer a clear contrast between a partisan approach that has failed America , and a country first approach that leads by example to solve problems."

It's an internal poll, and internal polls are often favorable to those who release them.  But Brodnitz is a solid pollster and there's no reason to believe that Brown hasn't benefited by staying out of the primary scrap, while cementing his excellent reputation among voters in the 4th District.  

But more than that, the internals of the poll show that voters in this so-called "red" district are desperate for change and believe in Charlie's ability to help bring it about.  On the flip:

We hear a lot about the back and forth of the Democratic primary in California.  We hear about various campaign rallies, some of it useful and interesting.  Heck, I've written about them myself.  What I see less about is the actual nuts and bolts of the California election, and what its quirks will mean for the delegate counts for Obama or Clinton.  The AP came close the other day.

The other states that experiment with proportional representation with their electoral votes, Maine and Nebraska, don't have a lot of EVs and their Congressional districts are ideologically similar.  But if North Carolina goes ahead and delivers 2 EVs to the winner of the Presidential race and then 1 EV to the winner of each of its 13 Congressional districts, then that changes things in a big way.  

It's great that the netroots candidacy of Ron Shepston for Congress is getting so much attention.  His race against the unfathomably corrupt Gary Miller represents a progressive hope and a decided alternative, and people are so excited that, at press time, he's raised over $5,300 dollars through ActBlue in just a couple days.

Superlative.  Outstanding.  Fantastic.

Now let's really look at what he's getting into.  The campaign has asked me to contribute a guest column to the rollout providing the lay of the land.  We'll start with the bad news and move slowly into the good.

I am fairly surprised that more has not been made in the blogosphere of the unwelcome news that Chevron is doing everything it can to buy off the California Democratic Party and some of its top legislators.  Outside of this small item in The Oil Drum, pretty much nobody has said a word about the fact that the CDP accepted a $50,000 check from a company that is attempting to artificially depress capacity and manipulate the energy market in a way that is shockingly similar to how Enron made themselves a fortune during the 2000-2001 energy crisis.  You can read the details here.

As a delegate to this party, I feel personally tainted by this donation.  I feel like there is a concerted effort to buy my silence.  It will not work, and I want to outline why I am respectfully asking this party, of which I am a member and to which I pay dues, to return the money.

People seem to forget that the goals in primarying Joe Lieberman were met, even though Ned Lamont is not currently the junior Senator from the state of Connecticut.  Lieberman is no longer able to speak for the Democratic Party, which was the biggest problem.  He stands outside it now as an independent, and therefore all the trouble he caused with going on Fox News and parroting right-wing talking points and undermining the party leadership are made moot.  A PERFECT case in point is his endorsement of Susan Collins today in the 2008 Maine Senate race.  Before his conversion to the Connecticut for Lieberman Party, a Democrat supporting a Republican, even a so-called moderate like Collins, would have been a negative for efforts to challenge her.  Now, according to Collins' likely opponent Rep. Tom Allen, it's a tremendous opportunity:

Oh boy, have they got Al Franken on the run now.  I mean, this Senate candidacy might be over before it's even begun.

See, the Republican Party of Minnesota has put out a blistering document (h/t Wonkette) that compiles "The Facts About Al Franken."

And it's not pretty.

Hugh Hewitt has a brilliantly self-destructive idea.

If the United States Senate passes a resolution, non-binding or otherwise, that criticizes the commitment of additional troops to Iraq that General Petraeus has asked for and that the president has pledged, and if the Senate does so after the testimony of General Petraeus on January 23 that such a resolution will be an encouragement to the enemy, I will not contribute to any Republican senator who voted for the resolution. Further, if any Republican senator who votes for such a resolution is a candidate for re-election in 2008, I will not contribute to the National Republican Senatorial Committee unless the Chairman of that Committee, Senator Ensign, commits in writing that none of the funds of the NRSC will go to support the re-election of any senator supporting the non-binding resolution.

He even set up a website for it.  And since conservative bloggers are like fireflies to a porchlight (in more ways than one), there are now 4,000 signatories to it.